4% LA Clippers (10:00 ET): I’m going to reiterate here what I said prior to Game 1. The Clippers have been grossly mispriced in the wake of the Kawhi Leonard injury. This is a team that still has Paul George and James Harden. Reports of the Clips' demise have obviously been greatly exaggerated as we saw in Game 1, which they won 109-97 as 3.5-point underdogs. And it wasn’t really even that close as LA never trailed and led by as many as 29 points. I have to say that I’m a bit shocked the home team has - again - opened as a dog for Game 2. Are we really to believe Leonard is worth five points to the spread by himself? Because, with him, I’d make the Clippers three point favorites here. 

Now will Dallas shoot sub-40% as a team and have an 8-point quarter again? Probably not. But let’s also note that Luka Doncic scored 33 (with 13 points and 6 assists) while Kyrie Irving had 31 pts (on 10 of 18 shooting!) and the Mavs still weren’t even close in Game 1. The rest of the team had just 33 points total. Daniel Gafford was absolutely atrocious. My view is that role players always tend to be play better at home (case in point, LA’s Zubac going for 20-15 in G1!) So, if Doncic and Irving are to get help, it’s more likely that it will happen in Game 3 and not tonight. 

Leonard is officially listed as questionable as of press time and I’m fine with that. But if he does end up playing, then the Clippers are closing as favorites, so I’d recommend betting this sooner rather than later. I know everyone was jumping on the Dallas’ bandwagon prior to the start of the series. However, let’s not overlook the fact the Mavs were 8th in the West in point differential (Clips 5th) and beat just ONE top 6 team in the West over the L20 games (by 2 points at home). I think the “defensive improvement” was mostly a “mirage” as they still give up 116.1 PPG on the road for the season. The Clippers are now a perfect 11-0 ATS this season after playing their L3 games at home. 4% LA Clippers (Play ML if favored)