Farense vs Benfica
Portugal, Monday, 3:15pm ET

Play: Farense +1.5
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Playable to -125

Benfica are coming off a painful elimination in the Europa League quarter-finals, as they lost the second leg on the road against Marseille, played 120 minutes of soccer AND a penalty shoot-out and, most importantly, they lost their last target of the season. It's been a very tough April for Benfica, who were eliminated from the Cup against Sporting, then lost for the league against Sporting again, which meant the end of their title hopes, and now they were eliminated from the Europa League as well. 

They still have mathematical chances, as they are 10 points behind Sporting, and if they beat Farense here they will move 7 points behind, but with 4 more matches to go, and with Sporting not looking like they will lose their own title, Benfica will most likely finish 2nd. 

Farense on the other hand, they are sitting 10th with 31 points, but they are just 3 points above the relegation zone (with a match in hand), so it's not like they can look away. They haven't been in very good shape lately, winning just 1 of L11 (W1 D4 L6), but they scored in 10 of 11 matches, they scored 2 in the 3-2 loss to Sporting, they scored 1 in the 3-1 loss to Porto and also 1 in the 2-1 loss to Braga, so they can score. We could make a case for the Both Teams to Score here, but they are missing their top striker and their most creative midfielder, so their scoring chances will take a hit. We have  to look elsewhere. 

Farense do not lose easily, or by big margins as of late, as each of their last 5 losses came by exactly 1 goal (including losses at Sporting and at Braga). They managed to hold Benfica to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in Lisbon, and the last time these two met (in the 20/21 season), Farense held for a goal-less draw at home and lost by 3-2 on the road, thus covering the +1.5 Spread in each of L/3 matches. 

Benfica have missed all their targets in less than a month, they played 120 minutes and a penalty shoot-out on Thursday, and it's unclear how much gas they have left in the tank, while Farense are definitely in for some points here. Maybe Benfica win, I wouldn't be surprised, but I think Farense will try to keep this close in hopes to maybe steal a valuable point here. 

Take 1u on Farense +1.5 (-120)