Angels (9:38PM ET MLB Network) – Solid 2-0 weekend on the bases and we are now nicely ahead in MLB for the season.  I feel like we are going to end up having a huge MLB season this year, there’s a few guys/teams I’m locked in on and I’m going to bump this move up to a 5% MAX BET when the Los Angeles Angels take on the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a three-game set at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California.

There are several things in play here that favor the Angels enough to push this into MAX BET territory.  First, I don’t think Baltimore can continue to win two out of every three games they play with this starting rotation and I’m choosing to oppose Albert Suarez here who has a far tougher assignment than a Minnesota squad that was hitting under the .200 Mendoza Line as a team last week.  The Angels enter play 9-13 but have played one of the most difficult schedules in baseball so far this season with 19 of their first 25 games coming against the loaded AL East.  Suarez fired 5.2 scoreless innings against Minnesota but the hapless Twins rarely had baserunners and Suarez historically is far more effective from the windup.  This type of inconsistency is something I’ve noticed from years of watching Suarez pitch for the Samsung Lions in KBO and watching him at Norfolk this season as he was knocked around by Scranton-Wilkes Barre in the start prior to facing the Twins.  We went into detail on my Spaces last week about this very thing and how the Angels run game should put a lot more pressure on Suarez.  There’s a snowball effect when Suarez is allowing baserunners because not only are his pitches less effective he’s somewhat easy to run on which makes his splits from windup to stretch more drastic than most starters in the league.  Suarez didn’t have to deal with he pitch clock in Korea last season so he’s still getting accustomed to that and we saw how that wreaked havoc on bigger guys (Alek Manoah and Lance Lynn both come to mind) when it was introduced in MLB.  The Angels should be focused after a lackluster effort in Cincinnati over the weekend and I think it ends up being enough to grab the opening game in this series.

I’ve always been high on Reid Detmers so I’m thrilled that the spot to fade Suarez and the Orioles coincides with a Detmers start here.  The Angels are 4-0 this season when Detmers toes the rubber and he’s yet to allow a home run which has been the Orioles main source of offense this season.  Opponents are hitting just .195 against Detmers this season and Detmers held the O’s to just one run on two hits over five innings in Baltimore earlier this year. I’m not overly concerned with Baltimore figuring out Detmers because they have yet to do so in four chances and Detmers four career starts against the Orioles have come mostly against the current crop of guys.  Detmers has a 1.59 ERA against Baltimore in 22.2 career innings pitched and it’s possible he gets a less than optimal Orioles lineup with Austin Hays likely out again here.  That means Baltimore probably ends up going with Colton Cowser who hasn’t gotten many starts against LHP so it won’t be easy to draw one of the hottest LHP’s in the league right now in Detmers.  I fully expect the Angels to score some runs tonight so any respectable outing out of Detmers should get us to the late innings with a lead here. 

If you go back through my Twitter feed to the Spaces we did on Friday I spoke extensively with Freddie Mills on the possibility of drawing this matchup.  Not only did we get the Angels vs Suarez matchup we discussed we get the Halos coming in off being embarrassed by the Reds while the Orioles have to feel content with how the road series in Kansas City went. This one checks all the boxes for me and I think we get revenge on the walk off loss Suarez and the Orioles handed us last week.  Play on Angels -117 for 5% (or 5 units)