3% Take Indiana (#583)

Without perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, the Milwaukee Bucks are not a ‘bet-on’ team to open the playoffs by any stretch of the imagination.  Milwaukee did not play good basketball without Giannis down the stretch, just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.  They beat Atlanta, shooting 55% from the floor against a team that doesn’t play defense.  They beat the Celtics on a night where Boston had just clinched the East (and they played like it); as flat an effort as I’ve seen from Boston all year.  And they beat Orlando in a game where Bobby Portis went nuts and the Magic were on the second of back-2-backs.  That’s it in terms of Bucks wins for the last four weeks. Milwaukee is a good team, not a great one, without their superstar --- the Pacers are road chalk here for good reason.

Yes, Indiana beat Milwaukee four times in five tries during the regular season, but frankly, those games are pretty much irrelevant, all played before the Pacers acquired Pascal Siakim before the trading deadline.  One key factor here is NOT irrelevant, however.  Indiana has been playing with playoff intensity down the stretch. Since the All Star Break, this team has been focused on getting out of play-in territory and into the #6 seed, building confidence as they went along.  Since the break, the Pacers won SU/ATS on the road at New York, Dallas, OKC, Orlando, Golden State and the LA Clippers, among others; clearly a team we can trust to step up in class in hostile environments.  Expect a ‘W’ from the road favorite to open this series.  Take the Pacers.

Line Parameter: 3% at -1 or better, 2% at -1.5 or higher