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Mark Zinno

Mark Zinno

(585) New Orleans Pelicans at (586) Oklahoma City Thunder

Event:
(585) New Orleans Pelicans at (586) Oklahoma City Thunder
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
April 21, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-105
Play:
2% – (585) New Orleans Pelicans at (586) Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder Total Over 112.0 (-105)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

The Thunder host the Pelicans in the Western Conference playoffs. I really wanted to lay the eight points here with OKC, but it felt a little too rich for my blood, so I looked at a corellated play in the Thunder team total. OKC averages 120.1 points per game on the season and 123.1 points per game at home. They are averaging 124 points per game over their last five games. You have to go back to March 12th for the last time they didn't score 112 points in a home game. The Thunder are 3rd in offensive efficiency and 7th in pace in the NBA. Now the Pelicans are a good defensive team, but they are without Zion in the middle tonight and I think the Thunder take advantage. OKC went over this number in just one of the three games between them in the regular season and it was the most recent one in New Orleans. The lone game played in OKC was back on November 1st, before the Thunder really had their amazing season going. My two biggest worries here are an OKC blowout that kills the pace where the Pelicans score in the low 90s and OKC only needs to get to 105 or 110. And the other is a defensive game all around, but if that happens, I think OKC is in danger of losing the game outright. If McCollum and Ingram are scoring for the Pels and pushing the pace, that favors OKC. 

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