3% New Orleans (9:30 ET): The Pelicans let me down big time against the Lakers on Tuesday, But I came right back with them against the Kings in their second Play-In Game and they did not disappoint. It ended up being “only” a 7-point win (I had them +1.5), but the Pels were up as many as 20 in the second half. Worth noting they also had a double digit lead over the Lakers in the 1H. There was a big deal made over the fact that no team which finished seventh in the regular season had ever failed to advance out of the Play-In Tournament. But what I think is really important to note is how the Pelicans were a lot better than their record and, really, unlucky to even finish seventh in the West. 

Yes, I know there’s no Zion Williamson and the Pelicans are facing a top seed who has had nearly a full week of rest. But the market overreacting to these player injuries has been a big theme (for me) in the early stages of these playoffs. As I’ve talked about many times before, New Orleans has the 6th best point differential in the LEAGUE. They also have the 5th best net efficiency rating. Now OKC is one of the teams with a better point differential and net efficiency rating, but I don’t think that justifies a number of this size, even with the rest edge and no Zion. There’s also a chance all that time off is a negative for the Thunder, who could come out rusty and that would be a big issue as this large of a favorite. 

Strangely, the Pelicans were a better team this year on the road including 13-6 ATS as a dog. They are also now 8-5 SU without Williamson. As I predicted, Brandon Ingram really stepped up against the Kings, scoring 24 points and playing well at the defensive end. Don’t forget about CJ McCollum, who ended the regular season with 7 straight 25+ point games while shooting 52% from three. OKC seems like a very vulnerable top seed (to me) as they are a young team that is unaccustomed to playoff basketball. The last time the Thunder won a playoff series was 2016. Number is inflated. Take the points. 3% New Orleans (Play to +6)