3% LA Clippers (3:30 ET): For most, the status of Kawhi Leonard (question) is central to the handicap here. Going back to 2016, Leonard has lost only one playoff series that he finished healthy (and ironically was up 3-1 in that series). So no doubt it would be a big deal, if he were to miss Game 1. But unlike most, I feel the Clippers can still win Sunday without Leonard. With him, I’d make LA a three-point favorite. So being able to get them at this current price is quite the swing. It seems like an overreaction by the market, similar to what we saw in Friday’s Play-In Games when Miami and New Orleans were able to win without Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson. 

Now Dallas closed the regular season as hot as anybody, going 24-10 SU and ATS over their L34 games. And that’s with basically “phoning in” the L2 games (both losses). Since trading for Washington and Gafford, the Mavs have posted one of the best defensive ratings in the league. But I believe that it’s worth mentioning that over their L20 games, Dallas beat only ONE top 6 team from the West and that was a 2-point home win against Denver on a last second Kyrie Irving basket. The Mavs’ bandwagon has really started to fill up, which is justifiable, but recognize they are pretty much at the peak of their value right now. 

Going by the latest reports, I’m not counting on Leonard playing Sunday. If he does, then we’re going to have some nice CLV. Once it’s reported he’s out, the money will only continue to pour in on Dallas. So you may want to wait to bet the Clippers. However, remember they still have both Paul George and James Harden. So they very much can win this game outright. I’m not necessarily sold on what some of the metrics say about the Dallas' defense. They still allow 116.2 PPG on the road. The Clippers are 10-0 SU/ATS this season after playing their last three games at home. I’m taking a chance on what I feel is already a good number that may get even better. 3% LA Clippers (Play to Pick)