3% F5 Over A’s/Guardians (6:05 ET): Please note that this play is only for the first five innings. It was all Guardians in last night’s series opener (won 10-2) and they are tied with division rival Kansas City for the best run differential (+45) in all of baseball. (Who would have thought that?!) The bulk of the Cleveland scoring last night came in the 5th inning (5 runs) and at that point it was “all she wrote” (up 7-1). Once again, I am expecting the runs to come early and often on Saturday as we’ve got a starting pitching matchup of Alex Wood and Logan Allen, both of whom have struggled so far to start 2024.

Cleveland has scored the third most runs in all of baseball (trailing only Arizona and Atlanta), putting up an average of 5.6 per game. As I already mentioned, they blew past that number early last night. In five games against A’s pitching this season, the Guards have scored 39 runs, putting up at least six four times. Why I like the scoring to come early this evening is because the Guards’ right-handed heavy lineup should have little problem with the lefty Wood, who has an 8.10 ERA and 2.101 WHIP after four starts. Cleveland has won all five games vs. LH starters and - despite not getting past the fifth inning a single time - Wood has already allowed 15 runs, six of those coming against this same Cleveland lineup in the first series of the season. 

The A’s obviously are far from being the strongest offensive team in baseball, but we shouldn’t need much from them to get Over this F5 total today. I do think they’ve got a good shot at putting up a decent number of runs up against Allen, who has allowed 9 runs his L2 starts, one of which came against the terrible White Sox. In two of his four starts, Allen has allowed 2 HR’s. One of those was against these A’s. That game ended up 6-4 and was 5-2 after the fifth. The A’s also have a right-handed heavy lineup, so the southpaw Allen is a favorable matchup for them. Let’s leave the bullpens out of this (Cleveland’s is very good) and the fact the home team may not have to come up to bat in the 9th. 3% F5 Over A’s/Guardians (Play to 4.5)