3% Boston (4:05 ET): The Red Sox came into Pittsburgh last night and completely dominated, taking the series opener 8-1. Unfortunately for yours truly, it was a BRUTAL loss with the Under (8.5) as the Pirates scored their lone run in the bottom of the ninth (thanks to a leadoff triple). The Bucs had just four hits for the game, only one of them coming against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, who went six innings and left with a 6-0 lead. As I mentioned in the analysis yesterday, no starting rotation in all of baseball has a lower ERA than Boston (1.71) and I simply don’t see how they’re a ML dog here with Kutter Crawford on the mound. 

Coming into the season, the Red Sox were thought to be the also-ran of the AL East. But an ⅛ of the way through the season, they’ve proven themselves to be more than competitive. It wasn’t a good first homestand (3-7) but the team is now 8-3 on the road where they are outscoring the opposition by a full three runs per game. In fact, the Red Sox are now tied for the 5th best overall run differential in the American League (+11) so don’t be fooled by the fact they are technically in last in the East. (They have the same run differential as Texas, who is in FIRST in the West). Meanwhile, the Pirates have now lost four in a row and have produced just five runs total during that streak. 

Back to Crawford, it is incredible to me that he has yet to record a win (four no-decisions with the team going 1-3) as he has a 0.42 ERA and 0.797 WHIP. He’s allowed just two runs total (one unearned) in 21 ⅓ IP on only nine hits with 24 strikeouts! Look for today to be the day for Crawford (to pick up the elusive win) against this slumping Pirates lineup, which has scored just three runs in the last three games. Starting for Pittsburgh will be  Mitch Keller, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in his four starts, so nowhere near as good as Crawford and he's facing a Red Sox lineup that homered four times yesterday. I also give Boston the bullpen edge in this matchup, so taking them on the full game ML is the play here. 3% Boston (Play to -110)