LA Galaxy vs San Jose
MLS, Sunday, 8:15pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -135
Line Parameter: Playable to -150

The LA Galaxy are coming off a 3-1 win against Vancouver, and are now 7-1 to the Both Teams to Score and 6-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals. They have scored in 7 of 8 matches (scored 2+ goals in 5 of 8), but have kept just 1 clean sheet (conceding 2+ goals in 4 of 8).

San Jose are coming off a tough 3-0 home loss to Colorado, in a match where they created a lot of chances but their finishing was tragic. They had 0.27 xG out of 22 shots, with 6 on target and 7 off target, these are terrible numbers. They've now lost 3 in a row and 7 of their 8 matches so far, keeping zero clean sheets and conceding 2+ goals in ALL 8 matches, but also scoring in 6 of 8 matches.

Underlying numbers say that San Jose are scoring just as much as they should have, but what's really eye-popping is their defense. They have conceded 20 goals, but their Expected Goals Against is 11.1, meaning that they have conceded almost 9 more goals than they should have.

That metric also influences the Expected Points metric, with San Jose sitting at 3 actual points, but their Expected Points are 11, that's 8 fewer points than they should have had by now.

The LA Galaxy have opposite trends, with 15 actual points but 12 Expected Points, meaning that they have 3 points more than they should have had.

Judging by those numbers alone, we would have to take San Jose +1 (-125), but it's really hard to back this San Jose side, on the road, at the LA Galaxy who beat them by 3-1 in San Jose a month ago and they are unbeaten in L/5.

San Jose are under a LOT of pressure to get some points right now and it's unclear how that will affect them. They can score given the circumstances, and the Galaxy don't have a rock solid defense per se. The more desperate San Jose get, they more goals are likely to fly, so we will take our chances with a Same Game Parlay with goals. This H2H is on an 8-0 run to the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals regardless of venue, and 5-2 in LA.

Take 2u on a Same Game Parlay with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-135 at Pinnacle)