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Mark Zinno

Mark Zinno

(575) Los Angeles Lakers at (576) Denver Nuggets

Event:
(575) Los Angeles Lakers at (576) Denver Nuggets
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
April 20, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – 1H Denver Nuggets -4.0 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

The Nuggets and Lakers open their series in Denver with the defending World Champions as the largest favorite of the opening round. While I do think that Denver will cover this number and they are a markedly better team, but there is also a reason to play the first half here. First off, the crowd in Denver will be going nuts. They are desperately going to want to remind the Lakers and LeBron that they got swept last season and that they don't stand chance here. But the Nuggets are also fourth in the NBA in first half point differential at home at +5.4. They average 59.7 points per game at home this season. The Lakers are 17th in first half point differential on the road actually giving up more points at 62, than scoring at 60.6. Add in the elevation and that the Lakers may need the first 24 minutes to get their legs under them and it feels like a spot where Denver should take advantage. The Nuggets defense will have to be on point as they will absolutely get LA's best shot given it's the first round of the playoffs. But again, there's not a real measure where the Lakers are the better team. The Nuggets defense is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I expect that they will keep the Lakers from a big scoring run early. 

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