3% Take Philadelphia (#571)

We can throw out all the ‘full season’ stats for the 76ers.  When we look at the 76ers with and without Joel Embiid, you can understand why. With Embiid, Philly went 31-8 SU. Without him, they went 16-27. Embiid has played six games here in April after sitting since January.  The 76ers went 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in those games; an emerging trend worth riding here. 

Philly is already ‘playoff tested’ digging deep to rally from behind to beat Miami on Wednesday, with two full days off between games.  It’s not like this team can’t win in the postseason – they swept their first round series last year (3-0-1 ATS), winning twice at Brooklyn, and they beat the Celtics – twice – in Boston (Game 1 and Game 5) at +10.5 and +8 point underdogs. They 76ers won a playoff series in 2022 as well, winning Game 3 and Game 6 on the road in Toronto. 

The Knicks statistical profile stands out as well, especially when we look at their hot stretch to close out the regular season: 5-0 SU in their last five games to notch the #2 seed, 13-5 SU in their last 18 games.  That said, the Knicks are the #3 offensively rated team in the NBA over their last 15 games, averaging 121.6 points per 100 possessions.  They faced a handful of good teams down the stretch, but NONE of them (including the Bucks and Celtics last week) were playing with anything resembling playoff intensity.

Jalen Brunson has developed into a superstar, but New York is still very much an offensively challenged team without Julius Randle in the lineup, especially against a quality defensive foe like Philadelphia -- #3 in the NBA defensively during that same span. This is no game to lay points in! Take the 76ers.

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower