3% Take Minnesota on the MONEYLINE (#578)

Let me start this write-up with a quote from Minnesota’s veteran guard Mike Conley: “My urgency is at an all time high.  I don’t think there’s anybody on either team that wants it more than me.  I told the guys that, selfishly, ‘do it for me, man.” Meet me at my level right now because I don’t got long….I reminded them the last time I made a deep playoff run was 12 years ago, so its not a given. You got to be taking advantage of the moments you get.  This is a heck of a team we have here and a heck of an opportunity that we don’t want to waste.”

That, folks, is a sense of urgency for Game 1 of this series.  Minnesota is clearly the team with something to prove, having lost all three regular season meetings with the Suns, including a blowout loss on this floor last Sunday, costing the T-wolves the #1 seed.  This team has been bounced out of the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two years. 

T-wolves center Rudy Gobert: "I really believe that we have a chance. I really believe that (that) type of season that we had don't come just like that. And some teams ... don't have the opportunity to get back together for a lot of different reasons. So, we have a unique opportunity, and I truly believe that everyone in this locker room is aware of that." Fellow big man Karl Anthony Towns: "There's obviously a big hunger here to be able to get to the second round. It's something we haven't done here in Minnesota in a long time. The fans deserve more, and we want more."  I expect the T-wolves to bring their ‘A’ game on Saturday.

The Suns are 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS against Minnesota this season following Sunday’s victory on this floor; all three victories coming by double digit margins. I’m not worried about that in the slightly – one early November game and two April games is not a particularly strong harbinger of things to come.  The Suns have shot lights out against Minnesota with a 123.7 offensive rating (better than the Celtics #1 offensive rating) against the league’s best defense. That’s random, not structural.

Minnesota has a bevy of elite perimeter defenders, between Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kyle Anderson, they can match up with the Suns shooters.  Anthony Edwards might well be the best player on the floor (apologies to Durant and Booker, but….) in this series.  Naz Reid was hurt last year and missed Minnesota’s playoff loss in five games to Denver, primed to step up here.  And it’s not like the Suns showed all that much fight and urgency down the stretch – Phoenix didn’t finish the regular season ten games under .500 ATS by accident.  Take the Timberwolves on the MONEYLINE.

Line Parameter: 3% at -129 or lower, 2% at -130 or higher