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8:10 PM ET -- MLB 

915 Detroit Tigers  
916 Minnesota Twins

Play: 915 DETROIT +136

List Pitchers: Flaherty & Ryan    

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at +125 or better
2% play at +115 to +124

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Since 5/1/2023, MINNESOTA is 2-13 in home games against AL opponents with the total set at 7 or 7.5.

Over the last 3 seasons and despite an average line of +106.7, Jack Flaherty is 9-1 (Teams' Record) on the road when his team is coming off a loss.

BONUS SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Over the last 3 seasons, DETROIT is 17-9 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better.