2% Take the Washington Nationals (#924) (action)

The Houston Astros are in last place, 6-14 to start the season.  Their lineup is ice cold, held to three runs or less in a dozen different ballgames already.  Their bullpen has been dismal, amongst the bottom quartile in MLB bullpen ERA to open the season.  Starting pitcher Justin Verlander is 41 years old, coming off  a stint on the DL with shoulder inflammation.  In two AA rehab starts, he gave up five and six earned runs in a combined seven innings of work.  And Verlander isn’t going to be vintage Verlander today, according to manager Joe Espada: “We've got to be careful how hard we push him early.  I know he's going to want to go and stay out there and give us an opportunity to win, but we've got to be cautious of how hard we push him early in the season." 

Plain and simple – the Astros have no business in this ‘heavy road chalk’ price range tonight, even AFTER the line move in favor of Washington.  The Nats have their ace, Mackenzie Gore on the hill; strong in all three previous starts this season and winner of his last two.  Unlike the Astros, the Nats are putting some crooked numbers up on the scoreboard and Washington has the VASTLY superior bullpen in early season play. Live dog here, against a favorite I’m looking to fade. Take the Nationals.

Line Parameter: 2% at +125 or higher, 1.5% at +124 or lower