3% Take the Pittsburgh Pirates (#918) (listed)

The Red Sox overachieved fairly dramatically on their first road trip of the season; going 7-3 to open the campaign.  They’re 3-7 since, each and every one of those seven losses coming in games where the Red Sox were favored or short underdogs, never higher than +115.  That tells this bettor fairly clearly that Boston is priced too high right now; an easy team to fade in this near pick ‘em price range.  And with Rafael Devers joining Trevor Story and Tyler O’Neill on the DL, this Red Sox offense legitimately lacks punch right now.  Starter Bryan Bello has struggled to eat innings, coming off a 107 pitch effort in just 5.1 innings of work against the Angels. And Boston’s bullpen behind Bello has been dicey at best, not a trustworthy unit to protect late leads at this stage of the campaign.

The Pirates are coming off a particularly lousy series against the Mets, coming back to earth after their hot start.  There’s clear urgency tonight.  Manager Derek Shelton: “Up until (New York), we've had pretty consistent at-bats. (In that) series, we got pitched to. We need to make an adjustment. (Thursday was) probably a good time for an off day. I think we have to be more aggressive.” They’ve got former first round pick Quinn Priester making his season debut tonight; primed to make amends for his late season struggles last year; an elite prospect priced cheaply this evening.  Let’s keep fading the Red Sox, until proven otherwise.  Take the Pirates.

Line Parameter: 3% at -120 or lower, 2% at -121 or higher