3% Take the Chicago Bulls (#559)

Last year was last year. This year is this year.  I could end my write-up right here.

Yes, the Heat went on a remarkable run last year to reach the NBA Finals from the play-in game.  They were healthier last year.  They were better last year.  I’m not going to ask Miami to win a ‘must- win’ game without Jimmy Butler on the floor.  Throw in the absence of Terry Rozier and we’re talking about  more than 37 points per game missing from an offensively challenged team to begin with.  And make no mistake about it – without Butler on the floor, Miami’s elite defense suffers.

The Bulls were in this exact same spot last year.  They finished as the #10 seed, then won their first play -in game against the Raptors, needing only a victory against Miami to play a first round series.  But Chicago blew a fourth quarter lead in that game, eventually losing by nine.  Miami went on to win their next three series to reach the Finals.  Chicago went home; a loss they still remember well.

Bulls star DeMar DeRozan, talking about their loss right here at Miami in the exact same spot last year: “I remember that plane ride back home vividly. Everybody was just frustrated. That feeling sucked. I know for me, that's one thing that's on my mind once I realized we were going back to Miami -- to not have that same feeling."  Coby White, coming off a 42 point effort against Atlanta on Wednesday: “It's going to be a junkyard fight, a dogfight. We know Miami, they know us. ... We have to come in ready to compete and leave it all on the floor." Key defender Alex Caruso (upgraded to probable): “We've got guys on the team when the lights come on and they are bright, they step up to the challenge. I've had moments like that in my career; DeMar countless numbers. (Nikola Vucevic) has played playoff basketball. I think that's one of great strengths that we do have guys who can go off any given night.”  I expect a Bulls ‘W’, but I’ll take the points here instead of the moneyline; a better risk/reward ratio!  Take the Bulls.

Line Parameter: 3% at +1 or higher, 2% at pk or if Chicago moves to the favorite's role