5% Baltimore Orioles (-134) over Kansas City — w/ Kremer & Marsh — 

This is an interesting match-up because two non-divisional opponents are already facing off for the second time this season and getting their 2nd look at both Dean Kremer and Alec Marsh. The difference, I think both pitchers will show a different side of their pitching this time around. Even though they didn’t face off H2H in the last series, Marsh definitely had the better start of the two, although both of them got the win. 

Dean Kremer was absolutely dominant in his lone road start this season, and that was against an impressive (this year) Pittsburgh team. He went 7 innings, didn’t allow an ER, despite giving up 5 hits. He did strike out 6 batters though and didn’t walk a single Pirate in that start. One thing that has been so impressive about Kremer TY is his 7.0 K:BB ratio, which ranks in the TOP 10 in the MLB of all the SP that have faced at least 70 batters TY. Kremer also got the win for his team in his 1st career start against the Royals, but has led the Orioles to a 15-5 record in his starts vs. teams > .500 in the L2Y. 

As I mentioned, Alec Marsh has the better start in the first series between these two teams. He went 7 innings, allowed just 1 ER on 2 hits, while walking just 1 and striking out 5. Since that outing against the Orioles, Marsh has regressed and I expect that to continue. He has allowed 7 ERs in his L9.2 IP, giving up 4 ERs @ NYM in 5 IP, and 3 ERs in 4.2 IP vs. the White Sox. Two very concerning things for the Royals when it comes to Marsh are the fact that he has posted a WHIP of nearly 2.000 @ H and he has allowed RHH to bat .400! 

While BOTH of these pitchers got the W for their team in their previous meeting against the opposing team this season, only one of the pitchers falls into this strong trend that I found to start the year. A SP (like Kremer) who has already led his team to a W against an opponent this year, facing that same opponent AGAIN as a FAV of MORE than (-115) are 7-2 TY!! 

Baltimore also has been EXTREMELY impressive in the bullpen this season, especially on the road. As a unit they have posted a 0.92 ERA on the road, allowing just 2 ERs in 19.2 IP. That also includes a combined 0.661 WHIP on the road! Regardless, they have been impressive all season. 

Another advantage for the Orioles is their ability to come in hot and a strong supporting record in the first game of the series (FGS) TY. They have taken the series opener in 5 of the 6 series they have played TY, including a 2-0 record on the road. Kansas City is just 3-3 in the FGS TY, they are 2-1 @ H, but one of those home wins came against the White Sox who have yet to win a FGS. It may be a better representation of this opener by looking at the fact that the Royals are just 1-3 as a DOG in the FGS. 

Last but not least, Baltimore has two more impressive trends to watch, despite being early in this season … 

1. 18-3 on the ML as an AF between (-125) & (-175) in the L3Y!! 
   • Winning by nearly 3 runs/game
2. 10-2 on the ML vs. RH SP TY … 
   • Putting up nearly 6.5 runs/game
   • Top 5 in batting AVG (.267) vs. RHP as a team