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9:40 PM ET -- MLB 

953 Arizona Diamondbacks  
954 San Francisco Giants

Play: UNDER 8 -115

List Pitchers: Nelson & Webb  

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 8 or better
3% play at 7.5
2% play at 7

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

The UNDER is 11-1 since 8/1/2022 when Logan Webb starts at home and his hits allowed in his last start were fewer than his season average hits/start.

The UNDER is 9-1 going back to last season when Logan Webb is a favorite of -122 to -170.

The UNDER is 15-1 going back to last season when the Giants are home favorites of -160 to -215.