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7:10 PM ET -- MLB 

923 Cleveland Guardians  
924 Boston Red Sox

Play: UNDER 9 -120

List Pitchers: Lively & Houck  

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at 9 or better
4% play at 8.5
3% play at 8
2% play at 7.5

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Play UNDER in games where a favorite of no more than -150 lost as a favorite in its previous game despite leading after 8 innings and they lost as a favorite in today's starting pitcher's last start.  11-2 (84.6%) since 7/21/2021.

The UNDER is 23-12 (65.7%) going back to last season when Boston is at home after a 2-game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more.

The UNDER is 23-10 (69.7%) going back to last season when Cleveland is coming off a 2-game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more.