Yankees (3:07PM ET YES, SNET, MLB.TV) – Tuesday MLB goes 0-2 which brings us back to dead even on the season.  11-11 and (thanks to 2-0 so far on 5% plays) less than a unit of vig lost so we “start over” today and head right back over the Peace Bridge for the rubber match of a three-game set between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

I’m not going to claim to have been on the “right side” with the Yankees last night but I do think we were a tad unlucky and a couple of poor decisions led to the Yankees demise.  Aaron Boone should have never left Rodon in to face Vlad, Gleybar should have never thrown to third and given up a sure out and Anthony Rizzo simply has to tip his cap as he was robbed of two sure hits that likely change the outcome of that game. Alex Verdugo missed tying the game with a home run off Jordan Romano by a few feet, I didn’t think Romano was particularly sharp during his rebab at AAA Buffalo and the Jays compromised bullpen will likely be a story line today.  The Jays have won four straight but haven’t scored more than five runs in any of those games and today will be up against solid Yankee pitching so they likely need to win another close one and I don’t see it with Romano likely unavailable and Yimi Garcia having pitched back to back days.  That means the Blue Jays are likely to turn to Erik Swanson who was also activated yesterday but he was even more erratic in his rehab stint at Buffalo last week.  Romano was EXTREMELY fortunate not to blow the game last night and I think it ends up an even more tense situation for the Blue Jays if Swanson is thrust into action with the game on the line today.  There’s also the strong likelihood it doesn’t come to that as Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the home team and he simply hasn’t been that good.  Gausman was destroyed by the Rockies (of all teams) last time out and the Yankees just ran him out of the game in the second inning a week ago. Gausman’s velocity is down which is likely due to a shoulder injury he sustained in Spring Training so I truly believe this is an “extended spring” scenario for Gausman where the Jays will just let him work through it and the Jays should already be content with the fact they won this series with the Yankees.  The visitors, on the other hand, have now lost three straight and have an off day tomorrow so should stack all their top relief options behind Marcus Stroman here. 

A mistake I made yesterday in playing the Yankees was discounting just how tough this Blue Jays lineup is on left-handed pitching.  I came in expecting Carlos Rodon to refine his pitch mix (and he did to an extent) but to the Jays credit they fouled everything off and had several really good at bats against the southpaw.  For as good as Toronto is against LHP, they give some of that back against RHP and face a veteran RHP in Stroman this afternoon.  Stroman comes off a less than stellar outing against the Marlins but was lights out against the Astros and Blue Jays in his first two starts this season and I expect him to keep the Jays offense at bay here.  Again, this Jays run has been fueled by pitching and defense, the Jays have had some timely hits along the way but offensively Toronto isn’t pounding the ball right now and I think Stroman can exploit that.  For whatever reason, Boone felt like he couldn’t go to his bullpen early last night and it cost him but now all the top relievers have had multiple days off and I think we see Boone mix and match liberally in the later innings of this game.

I love both of these teams this season, I think both are serious contenders in the American League and the only time I’ll likely play against the Jays or Yankees is when they are playing each other.  If forced, I would side with the Yankees being the stronger of the two and I don’t think the Yankees are getting swept here.  Play on Yankees -103 for 4% (or 4 units)