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6:40 PM ET -- MLB 

953 Colorado Rockies 
954 Philadelphia Phillies

Play: UNDER 8.5 -115

List Pitchers: Gomber & Suarez  

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 8.5 or better
3% play at 8
2% play at 7.5

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Going back to last season, the UNDER is 7-1 when Austin Gomber starts after allowing fewer than 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts.

Going back to last season, the UNDER is 9-2 when Austin Gomber starts on the road as an underdog of +140 or more.

The UNDER is 11-1 this season when Philadelphia faces a team with a bullpen that averages more than 3 2/3 innings pitched per game on the season.

The UNDER is 7-0 this season when Philadelphia faces an NL team with an OBP of .325 or worse on the season.

The UNDER is 11-1 this season when Philadelphia faces a team whose hitters strike out at least 7 times per game on the season.