9:10 PM ET -- MLB 

907 San Diego Padres  
908 Los Angeles Dodgers

Play: 908 LA DODGERS -190

List Pitchers: Waldron & Stone  

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at -200 or better
2% play at  -201 to -210

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY MLB-WIDE SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON favorites of -175 to -250 if they're coming off a 1-run loss to a division rival and lost as a home favorite of at least -150 the last time they faced the current opponent.  39-4 (90.7%, 36% ROI) going back to the 2020 season.

KEY TEAM-SPECIFIC SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Since 5/29/2023, the DODGERS are 9-1 SU (32.9% ROI) and 8-2 RL (60.9% ROI) as regular-season home favorites of at least -120 if they allowed at least 8 runs in their previous game.  Average Score: DODGERS 6.3, Opponents 2.8