Germany Bundesliga

(202485) Wolfsburg at (202486) RB Leipzig

All focus on the Top-4 for Leipzig.  After being eliminated by Real Madrid in the UCL last round, they are on a 5-game unbeaten run (one match was before the Madrid game) with four wins and a draw and have passed Dortmund for 4th place.  They sit level on points, but Leipzig has the better goal differential.

They haven't conceded a goal in four straight home matches, winning three of them by margin, though they failed to cover in their last home match, a 0-0 home draw with Mainz.  They generated 2.92 xG in that match so its not like they didn't have their chances, they just didn't convert.

They have averaged 2.55 xG at home this season while allowing 1.10 xGA.

Wolfsburg is coming off a rare away win at Werder Bremen, just their 3rd of the season.  Against the other top teams, their results:

0-2 at Leverkusen
1-3 at Stuttgart
0-1 at Dortmund

They averaged 0.58 xG while allowing 2.43 xGA in those three.

All signs point to a similar match here and likely a multi-goal Leipzig win as goal differential is important, so Leipzig should continue to push even with a one-goal lead in the second half.

TAKE RB LEIPZIG -1.5

Line Parameter: 3% to -125, 2.5% to -140