Recent Play Details

The Gold Sheet

Event: (917) Baltimore Orioles at (918) New York Yankees
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: May 24, 2023 7PM EDT
Play: 3% – New York Yankees -140 N Cortes (LHP) Must Start
Play Rating: 3%
Result: Loss

There are several factors that have us pointed toward the Yankees in this matchup. Let's start with the historical matchup. The Yankees' lineup doesn't have great numbers against Tyler Wells, but there's one notable exception: Aaron Judge is 8-for-17 with three home runs against him and he'll be hitting second tonight. On the other side, the Orioles' current roster is batting .175 in 103 plate appearances vs Nestor Cortes with a 40.8-percent strikeout rate and a .204 weighted on-base average. Those are some really, really bad numbers. Advanced metrics suggest that Cortes has been pitching a little better than his box score numbers would indicate. According to Baseball Savant, his expected ERA (3.79) is a run-and-a-half lower than his actual ERA (5.21). The opposite is true for Wells. His expected ERA (3.84) is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA (2.94). Wells' BABIP of .166 compared to the MLB average of .300 suggests that he's been getting incredibly fortunate on balls hit in play this season. Baltimore's key relievers, Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, combined to throw 45 pitches last night.

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