Recent Play Details

The Gold Sheet

Event: (959) New York Mets at (960) Chicago Cubs
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: May 23, 2023 7PM EDT
Play: 3% – Chicago Cubs -110 D Smyly (LHP) Must Start
Play Rating: 3%
Result: Win

With Justin Verlander starting the year on the IL and Max Scherzer battling all kinds of issues, Kodai Senga has done a nice job of holding a steady place in the Mets' rotation. However, he's got two red flags on his resume for this start against the Cubs: He's on the road and his walk rate is an issue. Senga has a fantastic 1.57 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP at home compared to a 6.30 ERA with a 1.75 WHIP on the road. He's in the bottom-tenth percentile among pitchers in walk rate this season. Senga has allowed at least three walks in seven of his eight starts this season, and the Cubs are very patient at the plate. The Cubs are hitting .254 against right-hand pitching this season (No. 10 in MLB) with a .333 on-base percentage (No. 5) and a 9.8-percent walk rate (No. 8). Senga hasn't gone more than 5.1 innings in his four road starts, and all four of those starts came against below-average competition (namely the Marlins and A's). In four starts at home this season, Drew Smyly has a 2.14 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP. His expected ERA of 2.83 matches up with his actual ERA of 2.86, so this impressive start to the season hasn't been a fluke.

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