Recent Play Details

2:40 PM ET -- College Basketball

803 Duke 
804 Tennessee  

Play: 804 TENNESSEE +3.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at +3 or better
3% play at +2 or +2.5
2% play at +1 or +1.5
1% play at pick'em

Last I checked, Duke was the most public side in today's 8 NCAA Tourney games.  So that has me looking Tennessee's way right out of the gate.  I also love the situation, which is probably why the majority is on Duke here.  The Blue Devils are off a 23-point blowout win in Round 1 over an Oral Roberts team that many thought would not only cover the spread, but also beat Duke outright.

On the other side, Tennessee was a double-digit favorite in Round 1, but barely escaped UL Lafayette, winning by just 3.  Given how both teams fared in Round 1, it's no wonder people have been lining up to bet on Duke.  But I like betting on teams that were heavy favorites and had a scare in their previous game.  These teams often come out with a top effort in their next game.

Tennessee owns the nation's #2 Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and the Vols are #3 in the nation in Defensive Effective FG Percentage.  Duke has not beaten a single team this season that has a defense that is anywhere near the level of Tennessee.  They lost to Kansas (#17 Defensive Efficiency & #16 Defensive Effective FG Percentage) and they lost to Purdue (#22, #41).  So why should we expect Duke to prevail against this Tennessee D?  Doesn't look to me like we should.  I'm taking the points.