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Oregon (11PM ET ESPN2) – Hofstra and Liberty both get it done for a 2-0 sweep in the NIT on Tuesday night.  That’s three winners in a row and a 25-9 CBB run overall and I’m right back to work in the NIT on Wednesday when the Oregon Ducks take on the UC Irvine Anteaters in NIT Round 1 action at the Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon.

Hand up over here, I was way off on Oregon this season as I made the Ducks my preseason pick to win the PAC 12.  For the second year in a row Oregon was a much better team on paper than they ended up being in reality but I do think this year’s team is better than last year’s and it oddly feels like Oregon needs a strong showing in this tournament. Oregon got bounced in the second round of the NIT last season, their record is almost identical this year so for this season to be considered even a marginal success I think Oregon needs to go out and win the NIT.  Coach Dana Altman has cited chemistry issues as a reason Oregon hasn’t been better the past couple seasons but unless the Ducks start to win something it’s likely to be a “revolving door” in Eugene with that issue remaining unresolved.  I don’t think there’s a “disappointment” factor here, Oregon was really never a tournament team this season and a big reason for that was some awful non-conference losses, one of which came to this UC Irvine team on this floor.  Oregon has some big revenge in play here, the Ducks get a chance to avenge an ugly 13 point loss to Irvine back in November as well as salvage something from this season with a good run in this tournament.  I disagree with the early move here, I expect Oregon to make adjustments from a dreadful performance against Irvine early in the season and bounce back with what very likely turns into a blowout win.

Let’s go back to that first meeting, Irvine was able to slow Oregon way down and the Ducks turned in one of their worst shooting performances of the season scoring just 56 points in the loss.  Oregon missed 10 free throws in that game and also shot 32.7 percent from the field which is way below their season average.  Oregon took a ton of threes in that game (and missed most of them) but the Ducks now know they are a poor three point shooting team and should exploit a nice advantage on the interior here.  This isn’t Russell Turner’s typical Irvine mix, he doesn’t have the front court players he’s had in years past and it’s a big reason why Irvine hasn’t been as dominant in Big West play the last couple seasons.  Irvine finished tied with Santa Barbara with a 15-5 record but the five losses are somewhat concerning as I felt like the Big West as a whole was an awful league this year.  The bottom half of the Big West was downright dreadful and Irvine struggled with a number of those teams this season including a loss to horrific UC San Diego.  Irvine became extremely reliant on hitting threes in conference play which worked against the terrible Big West but is less likely to work against Oregon, especially now that Oregon knows it’s coming after Irvine fired up 28 threes and hit 12 of them in the first meeting between these two teams.  I still think Altman is a fantastic coach, he’s likely going to run Irvine off the three point line and try to get the Anteaters going to the rim and I don’t think that type of game works for Irvine here. 

Will Richardson and Jermaine Couisnard were both confirmed out days ago but it looks like N’Faly Dante will play and I honestly think it might be some “addition by subtraction” for this Ducks team.  These guys are the reason Oregon is an NIT team, Richardson has been playing hurt all season while I think Couisnard’s minutes can be replaced by bench guys hungry to play.  If I’m right about Dante playing THAT is the key for Oregon since Irvine doesn’t have an answer for him.  Dante went for 20 and 9 in the loss to Irvine this season and as long as he’s on the floor I expect him to have another monster game here.  I love this opportunity for guys like Keeshawn Barthelemy and Kel’el Ware to be the center of attention.  I thought Ware had the potential to be Oregon’s best player this season but the 7 foot freshman clearly wasn’t ready as Altman barely played him.  Ware has been in the 10-20 minute range the past few games, Oregon could potentially go big with him and Dante and I think Irvine would have a real issue trying to guard that.  Either way there’s talent on this Oregon roster outside of the guys that won’t play here, I can see THAT crew being motivated and I think any sort of concerted effort sees Oregon pull away in this game.  Play on Oregon -7 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)