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Kent State (4PM ET ESPNU Plus) – Thursday continues on with more Conference Tournament action, this time in the MAAC where the Kent State Golden Flashes take on the Northern Illinois Huskies in early round action at the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio.

I’ve been extremely involved in the MAC this season, I’ve seen a bunch of these teams play multiple times and I’m confident that Kent State, Toledo and Akron are far and away the three best teams in this league by a wide margin.  The problem with that is that’s pretty much known at this point which means its going to be difficult finding value to back these sides in the MAC Tournament.  Despite a big number I think we have it here, Kent State is one of the few teams I’ve been willing to lay a big number with this season and the Golden Flashes have gotten it done every time.  I know I was lucky to cover with Kent State in overtime against Akron last week but that was still a game Kent State controlled most of the way against a very solid opponent. Kent State inexplicably lost to Northern Illinois earlier this season in what was easily the worst result of the year for this Golden Flashes team.  That game was at Northern Illinois, this game is in Cleveland which is a trip from DeKalb but a stones throw away from Kent, Ohio and I think this will be a pro-Kent State crowd and a pro-Kent State result here. 

Kent State is lethal defensively, their only issue at times is they foul but I don’t think that ends up being an issue against a Northern Illinois team that likely turns the ball over before getting fouled.  Northern Illinois is 321st nationally in turnovers and that’s a big issue against a team that pressures the ball the way Kent State does. Northern Illinois only turned it over 12 times in the upset win but Kent State also gave up a very uncharacteristic 86 points to the Huskies in a game where Kent State simply was unfocused and not ready to play.  I think this Kent State team is past that, the Golden Flashes know they have a great chance to make it to the NCAA Tournament this season and I expect them to come in taking nothing for granted here.  When that’s been the case for Kent State this season the Golden Flashes run their offense through point guard Sincere Carry and he typically either creates his own shot (which he’s hitting at a 40.9% clip) or a good shot for one of his teammates.  Kent State puts a lot of pressure and responsibility on Carry on the offensive end but he’s an upperclassman and he’s really embraced it down the stretch. Carry wasn’t as involved as he typically is in the first meeting that’s probably why the Golden Flashes couldn’t get over the hump against what is a bad Northern Illinois team.  Carry has taken over of late, he put up 23 and 35 in wins over Ohio and Akron respectively who are both FAR better teams than Northern Illinois and I think he leads Kent State to a big offensive output here.

Kent State RARELY gives up 80+ to good teams let alone a team as poor as Northern Illinois.  I think Kent State has the best chance of the “Big 3” to win this tournament and I think they kick things off in Cleveland with a blowout win here.  Play on Kent State -13 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)