Germany Bundesliga
(202449) Wolfsburg at (202450) Hertha BSC
Nothing screams jump on Hertha Berlin here like seeing Wolfsburg win 6-0 this past weekend over Freiburg while Berlin lost 1-3 at Bochum. But I think that provides a perfect opportunity to do so. Despite Berlin's struggles this season, they have just two losses at home which came against the big boys Bayern and Dortmund, otherwise they have draws vs Frankfurt, Leverkusen, Freiburg, and Hoffenheim plus a win over Koln which are all on similar levels to this Wolfsburg side.
Most alarming for Wolfsburg is their away numbers this season. -0.80 xG differential averaging just 0.92 xG per match while allowing 1.72 xGA.
Wolfsburg have also been a big overperformer this season with 26 points while their xP (expected points) sits at 20.6 while Hertha Berlin have vastly underperformed with just 14 pts on 17.5 xP. Perhaps these teams are closer than the table suggests.
TAKE HERTHA BERLIN +0.25
Line Parameter: 4% at +0.25 to -135, 3% at +0
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