Spain La Liga
(201813) Real Madrid at (201814) Ath Bilbao
Bilbao will likely give Madrid fits here as they always seem to. I thought about taking Bilbao but it's actually a little steep of a price to even get them at +0.25 as books certainly feel the same way. Bilbao has been excellent on defense this year and will make it tough for Madrid to get much space here. Bilbao have allowed just 12.5 xGA this entire season in 17 matches which works to the lowest average in the league.
Madrid of course have plenty of firepower, but their defense is good too allowing 17.0 xGA and have allowed more than one goal just two times all season.
Madrid tend to find the winner in this series more often than not winning six of the last eight meetings, but is is rarely in blowout fashion as four of the last five have stayed Under the total as well as 9 of the last 13. At Bilbao, five of the last six have finished Under the total.
TAKE UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to -120, 3% to -130
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