Recent Play Details

Niagara (7PM ET ESPN Plus) – It’s a Jersey split for us on Thursday but we get out ahead thanks to hitting a third consecutive 5% MAX BET on Monmouth. I’ll stay in the Garden State for my only move on Friday as we head to the MAAC where the Rider Broncs battle the Niagara Purple Eagles at Alumni Gymnasium in Lawrenceville, New Jersey. 

I’m going back to the well with Niagara in a spot where I think the Purple Eagles are vastly undervalued.  Niagara enters play with three consecutive losses but all three of those games could have easily been Niagara wins.  Niagara had a couple bounces go against them at the end of a 64-59 loss at Manhattan and led most of the game (in a game we bet) against Siena before bowing out late. Sunday was the most unlucky result of them all as Niagara led with a minute left only to lose the game on a Patrick Gardner jumper with six seconds left on the clock.  I think this run is deceiving because prior to the three losses Niagara was 4-1 in MAAC play and looking very much the part of one of the better teams in this league.  Niagara might not be a contender yet, but I love what Greg Paulus has done with his time in Lewiston and there’s no way the Purple Eagles are a bottom feeder like many expected them to be.  I have Niagara somewhere in the middle, which is also where I have Rider, which tells me this number is too high.  Rider comes off a monumental upset of Iona, I think the Broncs are fat and happy right now and I think Niagara gives them all they can handle here. 

Niagara doesn’t have a Dwight Murray (Rider’s best player and one of the best scorers in the MAAC) but the Purple Eagles do have an entire team that buys into how Paulus wants them to play and it’s paid dividends so far this season. Noah Thomasson comes close, he enters play averaging 18.3 points per game and comes off an effort where he scored 19 points, grabbed seven boards and dished out nine assists and he’s emerging as the “go to” threat Niagara’s offense has lacked during his tenure.  As a result of Thomasson becoming someone that can go out and get a bucket Niagara isn’t nearly as bad offensively as they have been in past years.  Niagara is still going to slow games down to a halt, so they will always be near the bottom from a point production standpoint, but this year’s edition is respectable shooting jump shots and has been in the Top 100 shooting free throws al season. Niagara also doesn’t turn the ball over, the Purple Eagles enter play 21st nationally with just 10.2 turnovers per game and being able to limit transition points has helped keep Niagara playing the pace they want to play.  Niagara is great at making sure it’s not going to turn into a track meet which could turn Rider into a three point shooting team here which is absolutely not their strength.  Shot selection has been an issue for Rider at times this season, it’s likely they will have limited possessions in this one and the inability to move the ball (not a great passing team) and get easy points could very well be Rider’s downfall here. 

I don’t see any area where Rider has a significant advantage over Niagara so the number in this game doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.  Rider can be a tough place to play but the fans tend to show up for the Siena’s and Iona’s and not so much Niagara.  We saw this matchup a couple weeks ago, the game went exactly as Niagara wanted it to with the Purple Eagles squeaking out a 61-59 win in Niagara Falls.  I have a strong feeling we are going to get a similar grind here, I think this one is tight throughout and the points should keep us in play either way in this one. Play on Niagara +5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)