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Has Jason Alexander earned the nickname "Houdini" yet? In his first four starts, he has a 1.70 WHIP with a 2.42 ERA. That's incredibly tough to do. He's allowing multiple base runners almost every inning that he's on the mound, and virtually none of them are crossing the plate. According to Baseball Savant, his expected ERA is 5.36 - Nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA.

We were on the Phillies against him a couple weeks ago, and he continue to pull out magic tricks to cost us the win.

First inning: Two on with no outs, no one scores.
Second inning: Man on third with one out, doesn't score.
Fifth inning: Bases loaded with one out, no one scores.

He's done this in every start. Last week against Washington, the Nationals started the game with two on and one out in the first inning and failed to get a run home. Keibert Ruiz hits a double to open the second inning and doesn't score. The Nationals load the bases with one out in the fifth inning and only get one run across. It has to catch up to him eventually, right? (right?!?!?). He's allowed 7+ hits in all four of his starts and his expected batting average against is .323, which is in the bottom-1 percentile among pitchers.

Normally, we'd prefer to back the Cardinals against a lefty because their lineup is so dominant against left-hand pitching, but in all honesty, it shouldn't matter in this matchup. Alexander is ripe to be crushed, and only needing to lay -110 to see it happen is very appealing to us. Play St Louis on the first five moneyline, which is widely available at -110 at the time of posting.