Recent Play Details

3% Take Cleveland (#923) (listed pitchers)

My clients and I have bet against the White Sox a handful of times in recent weeks; a team that has not lived up to betting market expectations in early season play.  They’re just 3-6 in their last nine home games after blowing a six run ninth inning lead last night, losing in extra innings; favored in each and every one of those home defeats.  And don’t be surprised if the White Sox are a bit hungover this evening. Manager Tony LaRussa: “A brutal loss. A tough loss.  As tough as you’re going to have.”   

Cleveland was priced as a bottom feeder in the futures betting marketplace prior to the season and they’ve been priced as a bottom feeder since the start of the regular season. That’s why, at 15-14, they rank in the Top 5 in MLB profitability; in sharp contrast to the White Sox, at 14-14; moneylosers this season.  Clearly, there’s ‘value’ on the road underdog in this ‘big underdog’ price range.

The White Sox used up their best bullpen arms in last night’s loss.  Starter Lucas Giolito has great advanced metrics – hence the hefty price tag on Chicago tonight -- but the White Sox have won only once in his four previous starts here in 2022.  Meanwhile, the Guardians are playing their best ball of the season: three straight wins, 8-1 in their last nine ballgames while pounding out six runs or more six times during that span.  Starter Cal Quantrill doesn’t get much betting market love – too many walks, not enough strikeouts – but he’s allowed three runs or less in every start this season, including quality starts against the Padres, Yankees and Angels in his last three trips to the hill.  Live dog here!  Take the Guardians.

Line Parameter: 3% at +150 or higher, 2% at +149 or lower