3% Take Cleveland (#523)

I’m not going to overthink this one.  The Cavs are the better of these two teams, whether Jarrett Allen suits up or not, but Orlando has covered the last three games in this series, including blowouts in both previous home games.  That means the Magic have a betting bandwagon right now; the Cavs don’t.  An 8.5 point line move between Games 5 and 6 seems like a massive overreaction to this bettor, even with Orlando’s previous success at home in this series, regardless of Jarrett Allen’s status.

There’s clear urgency for the Magic, looking to avoid a Game 7 with the Celtics on tap next for the winner. Donovan Mitchell, coming off a 14 point ‘refuse to lose’ fourth quarter in Game 5: “Got to do it again on the road. We won at home. We took care of business at home. We did our job. This doesn't prove anything. We haven't proven anything. We haven't done anything. Got to go down there and handle business."

Orlando has been a great pointspread team both this year and last; routinely undervalued in the betting marketplace.  In fact, they covered nine straight pointspreads as a favorite after the All Star Break.  But it’s surely worth noting that all nine of those wins and covers came against lottery bound foes – Orlando beat up on the weak, not the strong.  And the Magic did not enjoy that same ATS success as chalk down the stretch, losing multiple games as favorites against stronger opposition – Houston, Milwaukee, Golden State and Sacramento. Much like the 76ers – Knicks last two games or the Cavs- Magic in Game 5, this has all the makings of a ‘down to the final possession’ type of contest.  Take the points!  Take the Cavaliers.

Line Parameter: NOTE: this line will move towards Cleveland if Jarrett Allen plays.  I locked in at +4 already; bet sooner, not later for this one.  3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower