5% Big Ticket: Take New York - Philadelphia UNDER (#511-512). 

Let me start with this: the database clearly shows that Game 6’s trend heavily to the Under, cashing at a 60%+ clip over the past decade.   And it’s the type of trend that makes perfect sense.  Both teams are weary, bruised and battered – the pace slows to a crawl as the series progresses.  Both teams have worked on stopping their opponents offensive gameplan day after day (in games and in practice) for the last two weeks – it’s not like either coach has a secret offensive weapon that they’ve been saving.

There’s been no pace to this series with the exception of Game 3.  In fact, this has been the slowest paced series of the eight first round series, with a 91 pace rating- lower than any team’s pace rating this season.  Fast break points have been at a minimum throughout the series; that’s not likely to change tonight. 

Game 4 produced 189 points. Game 5, despite a flurry of late buckets, produced 194 points in regulation. Key offensive players Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris all played more than 48 minutes in Tuesday’s OT affair, on the heels of Sunday’s equally intense outing where all of those guys except Harris played 40+ minutes.

So to sum it up, we’ve got two tired teams with tired stars in a defensive minded potential elimination game; the type of NBA Playoff games that have trended Under for decades.  I’m not expecting pace, I’m not expecting offensive efficiency.  The betting markets have trended down on the totals as this series has progressed for good reason.  First to 90 wins; an Under bet worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager.  Take the Knicks – 76ers UNDER.

Line Parameter: 5% at 198 or higher, 4% at 197.5 or lower