4% Take Dallas (#505)

Let me start with an excerpt from my Mavs-to-win-the-Series write-up that I made prior to Game 1.  

“Let’s be real – unless the Clips have a hidden ‘switch’ to flip, we can only expect what we’ve seen for the last three months – a largely mediocre basketball team.  Real quietly, waaaaay under the radar, the Dallas Mavericks defensive efficiency was #1 in the NBA over their last 15 games.  Unlike the Clippers superstars, the Mavs star duo of Luke and Kyrie are both fully healthy. And unlike LA, Dallas has been clicking on all cylinders since the trading deadline, when the acquisition of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford (and Dante Exum’s return from injury) completely transformed their potential trajectory; a team with nothing but upside moving forward here in the postseason.”

I want the Mavs off a loss, especially with two days off to stew before Game 5.  They’re 1-0 SU/ATS in this series off a loss.  With the exception of their ‘sitting starters’ games to close out the regular season vs Detroit and OKC, the Mavs haven’t lost back-2-back games in nearly two months – since the first week of March – ‘bet-on’ all the way following a defeat.

Coming off two losses in a row, the Clippers played about as well as they can play – at least early – against the Mavs in Game 4, taking a 31 point lead by midway through the second quarter.  They barely hung on to win the game despite 54% shooting overall; 62% from three point range.  I don’t expect the Kawhi-less Clippers to approach those same offensive numbers this evening against the Mavs strong defense.

Hungry quotes from the road favorite?  You betcha! Luka: “Just came out sloppy (in Game 4). We’ve got to be way better than that.”  Kyrie: “We dug ourselves in a hole. There's no time to complain about it or look to each other for any excuses. It was just time to get it going. Fell short, but this is a consistent thing in this series so far where Kawhi doesn't play and we're just dealing with a barrage of James Harden and Paul George getting off.” Expect some defensive answers for the Mavs against that duo tonight; a game that Dallas is primed to win by margin. Take the Mavericks

Line Parameter: 4% at -3 or lower, 3% at -3.5 or higher