3% Take Philadelphia (#565) 

After four games of this series, despite facing a 3-1 series deficit, I still think the 76ers are every bit as good – if not better – than the Knicks.  It’s not like Philly can’t win in the postseason on the road – they swept their first round series last year (3-0-1 ATS), winning twice at Brooklyn, and they beat the Celtics – twice – in Boston (Game 1 and Game 5) at +10.5 and +8 point underdogs. The 76ers won a playoff series in 2022 as well, winning Game 3 and Game 6 on the road in Toronto. 

Frankly, Philly should have won Game 2 here at Madison Square Garden before New York erased a five point deficit in the last 30 seconds, a ‘perfect storm’.  It’s surely worth noting that Philly still covered the spread in defeat in that contest.  And I’m not expecting Philly to lay down tonight after blowing a double digit second half lead in Game 4 – both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey went cold down the stretch as Philly shot just 6-24 from the floor in the fourth quarter; 35% from the floor for the full game.  Maxey: "They have three already, so we have to go up there and fight for our lives.  Fight for our season. That's what it is.”

The Knicks won’t have three point sharpshooter Bojan Bogdanovic in the lineup today, out with an ankle injury. Center Mitchell Robinson sat Sunday and is questionable at best here.  Jalen Brunson has been spectacular in this series, but his knee injury isn’t healing (44 and 45 floor minutes L2 games) and Tom Thibodeau is down to a seven man rotation – quality depth is not the Knicks strength at this stage of the campaign. Bottom line: Philly is live to win this game in SU fashion.  I’ll take the points in case they come up just short, like they’ve done twice already in three losses in this series.  Take the 76ers

Line Parameter: 3% at +4 or higher, 2% at +3.5 or lower