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(501) Miami Heat at (502) Boston Celtics  (Game Analysis Below) 

Play Rating: 4% 

Play Type: Full Game Team Total

Play: Boston Celtics Total Over 107.0 (-115)

Date/Time: May 1, 2024 7:30 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

4% Miami @ Boston

Boston 4Q offensive collapses in each of the first four games the only thing that prevents this from being a 5% Blue Chip release. 17 & 21 point performances in the final stanzas at Miami left Celtics team totals shy of the 107.5 asking price by 5.5 & 3.5 points respectively. In Game #2 they posted just 22 in full blown 2H collapse and in Game #1 they scored just 23 which was enough to exceed the 112 closer. Interesting to note the adjustment on that 112 team total Boston was assigned in the series opener here at TD Garden (109.5 in Game #2) which has dropped significantly to just 107 tonight. Some emphasis in this line is placed on the absence of Celtics #1 C Kristaps Porzingis who’s out with a calf strain. Boston played 25 games without Porzingis in the lineup this season and went over this current total 23 times…(92%!). In all 23 of those they scored at least 112 which is 5 points better than what the oddsmaker is dealing in this one. Porzingis has averaged 12.3 ppg in the series but Boston bench has shown more than enough scoring capability to cover for top personnel absences. On average this series the Celtics have had 300.4 potential points available to them per game. Their scoring average through 4 games is 105.3 telling us that they’re only scoring 35% of their potential points and yet that’s off this total by one basket. Expected home bounce back after a pair of subpar outings + the over compensation in their team total paves way to supporting Boston “over”. Celtics average 122.4 per game here at home and all angles signal toward them land in the 111+ range.            

Play: Boston Celtics Total Over 107.0 (-115)