Dating back to 2004 in playoff games 2-7, the under is 48-24 (66.7%) when both teams shot >22 free throws in their previous game, one team shot 40+% from 3, and the game stayed under.

Coach Kidd said, “Okc came out 11/14 from 3… we gotta be better at taking it away” and from that point on they were. He continued and mentioned that in the 1H OKC shot 22 free throws, but in that 2H DAL held them to only 6.  There will be an emphasis on defending without fouling.  Coach Kidd also said “Our turnovers put us in a bad situation” and that translated to 22pts off turnovers for OKC.  I expect the team with the 4th best turnover rate to clean that up.

Kyrie talked about Dallas “failing on their coverages and not coming in with the attitude that was necessary to get the W”.  When asked to be more specific it sounded like they need to clean up fast break defense and tighten up the defense in general.

Matchup wise Mavs will continue to miss Maxi Kleber who spaces the floor and allows DAL to get into the paint easier.  Luka is also banged up and IMO it’s hurting him most on his long distance shots.  OKC is comfortable leaving shooters like Josh Green open and until they start hitting shots it makes it tough for DAL to get into the teeth of the defense.

DAL made their run down the stretch of the season by playing great defense and I’m expecting them to be more focused, give more effort, and get back to good defensive ways in game 2.

After shooting so well in game 2 and both teams living at the free throw line, we’ll expect regression which will translate to another under game.