Dating back to 2016, First round 5 seeds or better as road favs are 20-0 SU/ATS after failing to cover as more than a 4 point fav.

Dating back to 2003, Game 5 road favs are 4-0 SU/ATS off a loss.

This is a nice bounce back spot for DAL.  It is rare that we see a game 5 road fav off a loss because the better team is usually at home, but that’s not the case here.  Especially without Kawhi or with a banged up Kawhi the Mavs are superior.  The Mavs fell into the trap of not playing with the intensity they needed vs a Kawhi-less Clippers squad & both Coach Kidd & Kyrie addressed it.  Coach Kidd said, “Understanding when Kawhi is out we gotta be better”.  Kyrie added, “When Kawhi is not in the lineup… they play with more liberation.  But for the 2nd straight game with Kawhi out we come out and we were not prepared and they know that their back is against the wall, so it’s just a reflection of our preparation when we come into games like this where we know they are playing with nothing to lose”.  I expect DAL to come out with a fire lit under them in Game 5.

That poor start translated to a 31 point deficit at one point with the Clippers making 14 3’s in the 1H.  Coach Kidd said they talked about it at the half and held them to 4 for the rest of the game.  That along with Kyrie catching fire sparked a comeback where they took the lead by 1 but PG hit a tough corner 3 and DAL was unable to complete the biggest comeback in nba playoff history.   I expect DAL to continue to pay attention to the perimeter and force more tough contested 2’s than open 3’s in Game 5.

Luka had a triple double but it was not a good game by him.  He acknowledged it saying how good Kyrie has been playing and how he needs to step up and help him out. I expect Luka to have a much better game 5.  LAC shot 62% from 3 in game 4 while DAL shot 33%.  I’m expecting regression from the clippers and progression from the Mavs shooting.  The Mavs are 6-1 SU/ATS as a road fav off a loss this season and they will bounce back once again in the biggest game of the season Wednesday night.