UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 26, 2025

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for July 26, 2025 with the main event headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates!

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Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, July 12	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Robert Whittaker -150 vs Reinier de Ridder +125
Rounds:	2.5 (Over -125 / Under -105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
TV:	ABC

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder

Classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Whittaker holds a massive edge on the feet with elite movement, power, and combinations, while de Ridder’s path is clear-get it to the mat and hunt the submission.

Whittaker was overwhelmed by Chimaev’s wrestling, but that’s a different level of grappling than what de Ridder brings.

De Ridder is 3-0 in the UFC, but the wins come with context-he was losing to Meerschaert before pulling it out, beat Holland who has no takedown defense, and got past Bo Nickal, who bizarrely chose to strike.

If this stays upright, Whittaker likely knocks him out. If it hits the mat early, de Ridder has the tools to finish.

The best bet is under 2.5 rounds at +125 or fight not to go the distance. Leaning Whittaker by KO, but it’s not a strong side play.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Undercard

Marcus Buchecha (-190) vs Martin Buday (+165)

Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida is a world-class grappler with an elite jiu-jitsu pedigree, and that ground game has translated perfectly into MMA-he’s 5-0 with all five wins coming by submission.

Buday brings striking to the table, but he’s far from elite in that department and lacks the tools to keep Buchecha off him for three rounds.

While Buchecha’s striking still lags behind, it’s functional enough to create openings for takedowns. If this hits the mat, it’s a matter of when-not if-he finishes. Buchecha by submission is the play.

Steven Nguyen vs Mohammad Yahya

Odds aren’t out yet, but Nguyen should be a clear favorite here. Yahya is one of the worst fighters to hit the UFC roster in recent memory-his offense is nonexistent, his defense is worse, and getting knocked out by Kaeo Fernandes is a major red flag.

Nguyen isn’t flawless, but he’s tough, composed, and has solid striking. This feels like a showcase fight for Nguyen against a regional-level opponent who’s only here because of geography. Nguyen by knockout is the expectation.

Ibo Aslan (-260) vs Billy Elekana (+220)

The safest bet in this fight is that it won’t go the distance. None of Aslan’s 16 pro bouts have made it to the scorecards, and with his kill-or-be-killed style, that trend is likely to continue.

He’s powerful but stiff, hittable, and has clear weaknesses in cardio and takedown defense-as Ion Cutelaba exposed.

Elekana made his debut on short notice and gassed trying to force an early finish, but with a full camp, he’s capable of surviving the early storm.

He’s not the cleanest striker, but if he drags Aslan into the second round, he has the tools to pull off the upset. Elekana is the pick, but the best bet is under 2.5 rounds.

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Amanda Ribas (-155) vs Tabatha Ricci (+135)

This looks like a high-paced, low-damage fight that’s almost guaranteed to go the distance. The over 2.5 rounds is heavily juiced at -400, and for good reason-neither fighter carries much finishing power, and both have the cardio to keep pushing for three rounds.

Expect a lot of forward pressure, volume striking, and tight clinch exchanges. This is a razor-close matchup that may come down to a single takedown or cage control moment.

Ricci at plus money has value in what’s essentially a coin flip, but the safest angle is using the over in parlays.

Damon Blackshear (-255) vs Davey Grant (+215)

Davey Grant continues to be one of the most underrated fighters on the roster. He recently beat Taveras and pushed the undefeated Daniel Marcos to a razor-close split decision.

Grant brings solid volume, powerful kicks, and striking that can keep opponents at range. Blackshear has length and a strong grappling game, but his striking looks slower and less crisp than Grant’s.

This fight should be competitive, but Grant’s pace and striking variety can give Blackshear real problems. At this price, Grant is absolutely worth a shot to win a close decision.

Carlos Leal (-400) vs Muslim Salikhov (+300)

Salikhov may be on a two-fight win streak, but at 41 years old, his movement is noticeably stiff and the athleticism gap is widening.

He still throws clean strikes and tricky kicks, but in his last fight, even Song was able to push him to the fence and control him.

That won’t work against Carlos Leal. Leal brings power, sharp head movement, and crisp counters that should give Salikhov serious trouble.

He won’t be bullied or slowed down by the veteran’s style. It’s a chalky number, but Leal is a confident side and should handle this matchup.

Said Nurmagomedov (-120) vs Bryce Mitchell (+100)

This is a clash of styles-Mitchell wants to wrestle and grind, while Said mixes sharp striking with opportunistic takedowns.

Mitchell may have the edge in raw wrestling strength, but Said’s striking is clearly superior, and he’s adept at managing his cardio over three rounds.

The concern with Mitchell is his recent form-he hasn’t looked the same since the brutal KO loss to Josh Emmett, and his last fight against Jean Silva raised even more red flags. Beyond that, he’s training at his own small gym with minimal high-level coaching.

Said, on the other hand, comes from a strong camp, has a disciplined approach, and shows better fight IQ. In a close fight, the edge in preparation and mindset goes to Said. He’s the pick.

Nikita Krylov (-180) vs Bogdan Guskov (+155)

There’s a lot of mystery around Krylov right now-after time away from the sport and strange rumors swirling, he returned looking completely off and was KO’d quickly by Dominic Reyes.

On the other side, Guskov has won three straight, but it’s a padded streak: one against a fighter cut from the UFC, one against an aging vet with no cardio, and one against a short-notice opponent he still struggled with.

The best angle here is the total-under 2.5 rounds is a strong parlay piece as Guskov hasn’t seen a decision since 2016 and 4 of Krylov’s last 5 fights didn’t make it past Round 1. As for the side, I’ll lean Krylov, but I don’t trust either fighter enough to bet it.

Asu Almabayev (-110) vs Jose Ochoa (-110)

This should be a high-level, competitive scrap. Ochoa impressed in his UFC debut despite the loss to elite prospect Joshua Van, then followed that up with a knockout win over Durden.

Almabayev just took his first UFC loss against Manel Kape, a legit title contender, and showed he belongs at this level.

The striking looks fairly even, but Almabayev might have just enough of a wrestling edge to steal a round or two with timely takedowns.

I lean Almabayev in a razor-close fight, but there’s no strong betting angle here-just sit back and enjoy this one.

Shara Magomedov (-600) vs Marc-André Barriault (+425)

Shara brings high-volume striking with a steady mix of kicks and pressure, but he’s not a one-shot finisher-he drowns opponents with pace more than power.

That may play well against Barriault, who’s shown some durability issues. However, Barriault has a potential path to success with wrestling and clinch work, especially given Shara’s suspect takedown defense.

Still, over three rounds, Shara likely lands too much on the feet and outpaces Barriault overall. Shara is the pick, but at -600, he’s unbettable. Keep an eye on how he handles the grappling exchanges.

Petr Yan (-330) vs Marcus McGhee (+270)

This is a massive step up in competition for McGhee, who’s coming off a win over a strangely flat Jonathan Martinez.

Credit to McGhee for landing the better shots, but it felt more like Martinez lost that fight than McGhee won it. That won’t fly against Petr Yan.

Yan’s movement, speed, and striking precision are on another level-and he mixes in takedowns with some of the best timing in the division.

McGhee is simply not fast enough to avoid Yan’s pressure or varied attacks. Yan is coming off wins over Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo and has consistently gone toe-to-toe with the elite of the division.

His record could look very different if not for a few razor-close split decisions and a DQ loss. Yan is better everywhere and should cruise to a clear decision win.

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