UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 12, 2025

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for July 12, 2025 with the main event headlined by Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN!

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Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, July 12	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Derrick Lewis +210 vs Tallison Teixeira -260
Rounds:	1.5 (Over +160 / Under -210)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN
TV:	ESPN

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Stephen Thompson +310 vs Gabriel Bonfim -400 

Classic clash of styles here. Thompson brings his trademark karate stance and footwork, using range, movement, and clean striking to frustrate opponents—though he lacks true KO power and offers little threat on the ground.

Bonfim is the opposite: younger, explosive, and dangerous with submissions once the fight hits the mat. The path to victory is clear for both—Bonfim via takedown and finish, Thompson via distance control and a striking clinic.

If Thompson can keep  this standing, there’s real upset potential. At this price, a small play on Thompson by decision could be worth the shot.

Steve Garcia -135 vs Calvin Kattar +115 

Kattar has now dropped four straight and hasn’t looked the same since his knee injury. While he’s faced elite competition, his takedown defense remains a weakness—but that likely won’t be tested here, as Garcia prefers a striking battle.

Garcia has won five in a row, all by KO, though he does absorb a fair amount of damage. This figures to be a stand-up war, and with Kattar showing  signs of decline, Garcia only needs one clean shot to end it. Until Kattar proves he’s back to form, Garcia is the pick.

Morgan Charriere -240 vs Nate Landwehr +200 

Landwehr has always relied on grit and pressure, but his last fight was concerning—he was dominated by Choi and looked mentally checked out. At this point, the wars may be catching up to him.

Charriere is technically sound and has solid ground skills, but his biggest flaw is his low volume, often looking for the perfect shot instead of simply outworking opponents.

That can cost him on the scorecards, but if Landwehr shows up like he did last time, Charriere’s patience and  control should be more than enough. The pick is Charriere by decision.

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Vitor Petrino -650 vs Austen Lane +460 

Both fighters have flaws, but Lane’s recklessness and cardio issues make him a major liability here. His lone UFC win came against Despaigne, who offered zero takedown resistance, and in his three UFC losses, Lane was knocked out each time—his chin just hasn’t held up.

Petrino has dropped two straight, but those were against much tougher opponents than Lane. Despite his own tendency for low volume and mistakes, Petrino should have the better cardio and composure as the fight goes on. Expect him to take over after Round 1 and potentially hand Lane another KO loss.

Junior Tafa -180 vs Tuco Tokkos +140 

This is a low-level heavyweight fight with major question marks on both sides. Tokkos has shown very little in terms of striking or wrestling, and while Tafa has virtually no takedown defense, he does have serious power.

This likely comes down to whether Tokkos can survive the early storm—and there’s little reason to believe he can. Tafa by KO is the play, as he’s the more dangerous striker and Tokkos just isn’t UFC caliber.

Chris Curtis -320 vs Max Griffin +250 

Chris Curtis has the clear edge in this matchup thanks to his strong striking and excellent  takedown defense, which should neutralize most of what Max Griffin brings to the table. Griffin  is nearing 40 and hasn’t looked impressive lately—his two recent wins were razor-thin split  decisions, and he was submitted by Chiesa in the third round. He doesn’t throw with enough  volume or power to threaten Curtis on the feet. Expect Curtis to dictate the pace, stuff  takedowns, and land the cleaner shots en route to a convincing decision win.

Muhammad Naimov -230 vs Bogdan Grad +190 

This is a high-energy matchup between two aggressive fighters who both mix striking and grappling well. Naimov likes to push forward, throw big shots, and hunt takedowns, but he’s not immune to getting clipped in exchanges.

Grad showed his toughness in his last fight— weathering early adversity and turning the tide with a knockdown and a finish.

Both guys will have their moments in what should be a fast-paced scrap, but this feels a lot closer to a pick’em than the odds suggest. In a 50/50 style fight, the value sits with Grad at plus money. He’s the  pick.

Chidi Njokuani -115 vs Jake Matthews -105 

This is a tough fight to trust either side. Matthews has the wrestling edge, but he’s notorious for making costly mistakes—whether it’s getting reversed or failing to maintain control.

His striking has some power but lacks consistency. Chidi has sharp, fast hands and clean striking, but he’s vulnerable to being pushed against the cage and controlled.

It’s likely a close fight, but I’ll lean  toward Chidi to land the cleaner, more damaging shots and edge out a decision.

Eduarda Moura -600 vs Lauren Murphy +430 

Lauren Murphy is 41, hasn’t fought in over two years, and was already slowing down in her last few appearances.

She lacks the speed and offensive tools to threaten someone like Eduarda Moura, who is physically imposing for the division and brings a strong grappling base with solid striking.

Moura should dominate this fight with her strength, takedowns, and pressure. With major advantages in age, athleticism, and power, this looks like a mismatch. Moura should cruise to a dominant win.

Kennedy Nzechukwu -240 vs Valter Walker +200 

Both fighters are riding win streaks, but against very soft competition. Kennedy is long, powerful, and wants to keep this standing where his striking is his biggest weapon.

Walker, on the other hand, has shown slick submission skills with back-to-back heel hook wins and will be hunting for takedowns and control.

Given the clash in styles and how untested both have been against quality opponents, this line feels too wide.

If Walker can drag Kennedy to the mat, he has a real chance to either steal rounds or find another submission. A small shot on Walker as a live  underdog makes sense in a fight that’s closer than the odds suggest.

Mike Davis -1000 vs Mitch Ramirez +650

Mitch Ramirez looked completely out of his depth against Thiago Moises — overwhelmed by the wrestling, finished by leg kicks, and never able to get anything going offensively.

That’s a major red flag heading into this fight with Mike Davis. Davis is a well-rounded fighter coming off a tough loss, but this is a big step down in competition.

He has the wrestling to dominate control time and keep Ramirez on the defensive all fight. Not sure if Davis finds the finish, but he  should win comfortably with top control and pressure.

Davis by decision or Inside the Distance depending on the odds — either way, Davis should cruise.

Fatima Kline -1100 vs Melissa Martinez +700 

Melissa Martinez relies on speed and movement on the feet, but she lacks the power to keep opponents honest.

That’ll be a problem here, as Fatima Kline holds a massive advantage in physicality, wrestling, and ground control.

Kline’s last fight showed her ability to reverse  takedown attempts and dominate on the mat with ground and pound. Martinez has to keep this standing for 15 minutes, but that feels unlikely.

Kline should get this to the ground early and find  a finish — either by TKO or submission. Kline Inside the Distance is the play.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is the shiny new name—25 years old, explosive, and riding the hype of several quick  finishes. He hasn’t been tested past the first round in MMA yet, but did go the distance in a kickboxing match, which gives a little hope about his gas tank.

Lewis, on the other hand, has lost 5 of his last 8, and his 3 wins came against guys no longer with the UFC. He’s slowed down considerably, throws very little volume, and often looks like he’s waiting for one big shot that never comes.

The upside, speed, and violence are all with Teixeira. The pick is Tallison to get it done—likely inside the distance.

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