Pop Tarts Bowl Free Picks : Kansas State vs NC State Best Bets, #1 Betting Predictions

Kansas State Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Best Bets: Pop Tarts Bowl Predictions & Analysis

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers some toasty picks on The Pop Tarts Bowl being played on December 28th, between Kansas State and NC State. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top free picks and best bets here.

Kansas State was a factor in the Big 12 title race but an overtime loss at Texas hurt their cause.  8-4 was a “decent’ year, but the program is at the point right now where it expects more. 

North Carolina State (NC State) won its last five games to finish 9-3, a figure that most people felt could not be reached.  Three of their final five wins were upsets down the stretch.  This looks like an interesting strategic matchup, but there are a few players and one coach missing from this game.

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Pop Tarts Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Kansas State Analysis

Kansas State continues to run at a fine clip (5.15-207 per game).  One of their RB’s is gone, but Giddens is the better of the two.  NC St has their usual solid run defense, but I’m still projecting 22-110 in this spot. 

There are two concerns. 

1^st. the Wildcats will not have QB Will Howard. 

The portal period conflicts with bowl games, and Howard is gone.  Freshman Avery Johnson saw some action, but this will be a tough assignment.  Second, their offensive coordinator is gone.  The transition might not be an issue, but it would be a lot smoother with a veteran QB.  The top two pass catchers are also missing, both will not be easy to replace.

Lost Talent on Defense for Kansas State

Defensively, I projected a modest 4.5 yards-per-carry figure.  They were at 4.4 until allowing 19 carries for 287 yards in the finale at home vs. Iowa State.  Talent was lost in the secondary and I projected them to allow over 60% through the air.  In this facet of the game Kansas State overachieved, with a repeat of 2022’s 57% performance. 

Three starters could miss the game (in the portal, but status unclear).  NC State is hardly a dynamic offensive team but there will be some holes.  Kansas State has a 24-17 sack ratio and for the season, a +10 turnover ratio.  Will that change with the new QB?  Kicking was 11-14.  Their 3^rd down conversion ratio was solid.  We’re used to see dynamite return specialists with this program.  The return game was far worse than usual in 2023 and their key performers will NOT play in this game.

Pop Tarts Bowl Picks: NC State Analysis Best Bets

NC St turned to Brennan Armstrong to run the show (again) after a QB injury.  He hasn’t come close to replicating his numbers from when he played for Virginia, but he’s generally accurate and is a run threat.  He gets turnover-prone at times. 

The Wolfpack got creative in the run game, and that was a surprise.  187 pound freshman Kevin Conception caught 64 passes, with ten touchdowns, and RAN 38-297, averaging six carries per game in the 2^nd half of the season. 

Another freshman RB averaged 4.8 per carry but for only 282 yards.  The QB/WR/RB variety is needed here to keep Kansas State off balance.  I was nearly exact projecting NC St’s run defense (4.05, but just 115 yards per game allowed), with the pass defense better than expected (57.5%).  Only their starting nose tackle is of significance as far as who will not suit up. 

I found it interesting that NC St had a +5:27 time of possession advantage.  I’m not used to this offense moving the chains.  Their 3^rd down defense is excellent and certainly contributed.  Like the Wildcats, turnovers were +10.  Kicking was 16-20.  The sack ratio was 33-23.

Pop Tarts Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

We have yet another raw QB that carries plenty of uncertainty.  Kansas State might be the more likely team to commit turnovers because of that, so that’s key #1.  Can their fine RB carry the load and help to share time of possession?  Can Armstrong take advantage of Kansas State’s secondary?

Pop Tarts Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

At full strength my Power Numbers would favor Kansas State.  The line opened around 5 but quickly changed, and currently sits at Kansas State -3.  I’d make them a bit lower with all the changes.  Even before the opt-outs, NC St had the rush data, but the category is only slightly favorable.

The Pick: Pop Tarts Bowl Prediction!

 NC St comes in with a negative indicator based on their recent win streak, but that’s still the only side I can go with for this game.  I see this as a dead even game, so let’s make a MODEST PLAY at +3 – NC State to cover.  For Kansas State to win they will need Giddens to make an impact and hope their young QB can make noise as well.

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