San Lorenzo vs Independiente del Valle
Copa Libertadores, Thursday, 6pm ET

Play: Independiente del Valle +0.25
Odds at Time of Release: +100
Line Parameter: Playable to -115

Palmeiras are leading Group F with 7 points, Independiente del Valle are 2nd with 4 points, Liverpool Montevideo are 3rd with 4 points (and a worse goal difference) and San Lorenzo are 4th with 1 point. San Lorenzo will now play host to Independiente del Valle in a very tricky match, and we disagree with San Lorenzo's favouritism in this spot. 

San Lorenzo have been struggling mightily as of late, now win-less in L/6 (D2 L4), scoring just 2 goals, conceding 8 and failing to score in each of L/4. They have scored just 1 goal after 3 matches in the Copa Libertadores, in a 1-1 home draw against Palmeiras. Their scoring problem was also visible in the recent Copa de la Liga (W3 D7 L4), where they scored just 10 goals (and conceded 14) in 14 matches, with an 11-3 to the Under 2.5 Goals (and 3-0 to the Under 2.5 Goals in the Copa Libertadores so far). 

Despite the change in coach a couple of matches ago, their offensive problem is still there. They do create chances, but they struggle a lot to convert them into goals. Their 4 wins in 2024 have all come at home, but against weak opponents, Sarmiento Junin and Tigre (who both finished below them in the standings), against a 3rd division side in the Cup, and against Godoy Cruz, in a match-up that hasn't seen the away side win since 2010. 

They struggle against serious sides, and Independiente del Valle are as serious as they come. Winners of the Copa Sudamericana in 2021/22 and in 2018/19, winners of the Recopa Sudamericana (the South American Super Cup) against Flamengo in 2022/23 and with another Final in 2015/16, this team has been making waves in South American soccer as of late. 

And this season they've been in really solid form, having lost just 1 of 14 matches in all competitions (W8 D5 L1), and that loss came at home against Palmeiras in Match Day 3 of the Copa Libertadores. They actually dominated that match, they took an early 2-goal lead and generated 1.33 xG to Palmeiras' 0.74, but conceded two late goals at the 81st and 95th minute to eventually lose. Had that been a draw, Independiente del Valle would be much more comfortable regarding the qualification from this group, but they are now sitting at 4 points and nothing is granted, especially since they have to travel to Palmeiras in the next Copa Libertadores match (a really tough venue), before finishing off with a home match against Liverpool Montevideo. 

San Lorenzo have only beaten weak teams so far in the season, while Independiente del Valle have only lost (barely) to Palmeiras, one of the best teams in South America. The reverse fixture was a 2-0 home win for Independiente del Valle, in a match where they generated 2.36 xG to San Lorenzo's 0.23 xG. 

Again, I disagree with San Lorenzo's favouritism in this spot, and we are going to side with the (much more reliable) visitors here.

Take 1u on Independiente del Valle +0.5 (-130)