Sonny Gray vs. Adrian Houser is the matchup here and this is strictly a starting pitcher selection. Gray is off to a great start for the Cardinals. He has very attractive numbers right across the board. The same cannot be said for Houser with a couple of big red flag analytical numbers, including an average EV of 93 MPH which isn't going to get it done. I wish the team data was better as the Mets have a pretty significant wRC+ edge vs. righties (+18) and I just cannot go big into that differential. But the Gray factor is enough to get me to the window and I will eschew the 1H money line at minus money and will opt for a small plus money return by laying the -0.5.