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(545) Boston Celtics at (546) Miami Heat  (Game Analysis Below) 

Play Rating: 4% 

Play Type: Full Game Team Total

Play: Boston Celtics Total Over 106.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Apr 27, 2024 6:00 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

 4% Boston @ Miami

Boston 2H collapse on each end of the floor should lead to an offensive correction and Miami offensive regression. Focus here is on Celtics offense which totaled 61 halftime points and then went dry posting just 40 in the 2H. 39.4% shooting a major culprit but more precisely their 3 point shooting. The 4/12/33.3% was their worst in all 3 categories per half in this series. The three prior halves for Boston were 12/30/40% - 10/19/52.6% - 8/20/40%. Celtics who are the #1 3 point% team in the league are likely to regain form for full 48 minutes here. Shorthanded Miami defense showed in Game #1 that when Boston is right they have difficulty stopping them. Additional angle here is the adjustment made which takes Boston from a Game #1 team total of 113 all the way down to 106.5 tonight. Expected bounce back + the seemingly harsh over compensation in their team total paves way to supporting Boston “over”. Celtics average 118 per game on the road and in 4 of 5 tries against Miami they’ve scored 110+. Look for Boston to land in the 110+ range again and make it 5 of 6.             

Play: Boston Celtics Total Over 106.5 (-110)