Dating back to 2014, First round playoff road favs are 13-1 (92.9%) ATS after losing at home.  They win those games by 16.4 ppg.  If those teams are a 9 point fav or higher they are 3-0 ATS winning by 25 ppg.

The Celtics got embarrassed in game 2 at home losing outright to a shorthanded less talented team.  The zone Miami played bothered them, but coach Mazzulla acknowledged it & after seeing it on film they will be able to adjust & get more efficient shots on offense.  MIA also made a franchise playoff high 23 3 pointers and I’d expect regression in game 3.  This reminds me of the Finals last year when MIA stole game 2 in Denver and got blown out in games 3/4.  This is the game the Celtics make adjustments and they are the far more talented team.

This is the role the Heat have struggled in all season as they are 1-9 ATS as a road dog.  The only game they covered was vs BOS where they had a 3-1 day rest advantage and came back from down 15 after the Celtics took their foot off the gas.  I’m expecting 48 minutes of effort after last game.  The Celtics are also the fresher team this time around as MIA played 2 extra games since the season ended and had to travel after each one.  Jimmy Butler also poked the bear from the sidelines by trolling and saying “Don’t let us get one”.  That quote was said by the Celtics after trailing MIA 0-3 in the 2023 ECF.  Celtics will respond in a big way and win by double digits.