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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(304633) KIA Tigers at (304634) LG Twins

Event:
(304633) KIA Tigers at (304634) LG Twins
Sport/League:
KBO
Date/Time:
April 26, 2024 5AM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-135
Play:
4% – LG Twins +1.5 (-135)
Result:
Win
Analysis

I think I've done well the past couple seasons evaluating the import pitchers that come into this league.  Last year I called Erick Fedde having a dominant season and correctly thought Tanner Tully and Aaron Wilkerson would positively impact their teams after being signed mid season.  

For that reason I'm not ready to bail on my assessment of James Naile who I just don't think can keep up this pace the rest of the season.  Naile was a reliever at AAA Memphis for the majority of the past two seasons, his numbers were respectable at AAA though opponents hit over .270 against him combined in those seasons and he was pounded for a 7.40 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 17 total appearances with the Cardinals during that span.  Naile hasn't regularly started games since his time with the Midland Rockhounds in 2019 so I'm just not solid on him coming to Korea and just dominating.

We do see some imports have quick success, it's usually beacuse the league isn't familiar with them but this is only a 10 team league and that almost always wears off.  In 5 starts Naile is 4-0 with Kia having won all of those games but this will be the first opponent he's faced for a second time and it's on the road at LG who are still the defending champs and still one of the better teams in this league.

LG calls up Yun-Sik Kim to make his 2024 debut after having him start the year down at the Futures level to work on mechanics.  Kim is only 24 but took a major step back last season and LG had excess pitching so could afford to have Kim miss a few starts in KBO to work on some things.  Kim has a 2.31 ERA at the futures level this season and was dominant in his most recent outing so I think it could translate.  Kik had a 3.31 ERA and 1.33 WHIP back in 2022 and was once a high draft pick so I think it's possible Kim could return to form this year if the adjustments and mechanical work pay off.

On top of all that the +1.5 extra run is affordable and I think LG is starting to feel some urgency, especially in front of the home fans, after a somewhat slow start.  Feels like a big series for LG at Jamsil and I think this ends up being a competitive game where we get the money either way.

Play on LG Twins +1.5 (-135) for 4% (or 4 units)

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