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Rockies (3:10PM ET MLB.TV) – Cardinals come from behind to get the win and that’s now a very solid 4-1 run on MLB.  We are nicely ahead for the MLB season, and I’ll look to keep it going on Thursday afternoon when the Colorado Rockies take on the San Diego Padres in the finale of a four-game set at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. 

The last couple seasons I’ve been watching/wagering daily on AAA baseball and in that time frame I’ve come to realize the oddsmakers really struggle with how to price starters that have a large sample size in AAA but a small one in MLB.  That’s the case this afternoon with Randy Vasquez, I’ve watched a ton of him at the AAA level and I thought he was very average with Scranton Wilkes-Barre last year and has been even worse with El Paso to start this season.  Somehow Vasquez has managed to step up when he’s gotten the chance in the big leagues, he had a 2.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 outings with the Yankees last season and was respectable (gave up 4 runs in 5 innings but only one was earned) against the Blue Jays last week.  I’m just not buying it, we now have a 20 game sample at the AAA level that (in my opinion) suggests Vasquez is a AAAA pitcher right now at best.  The Padres are rolling with him in the rotation in place of the injured Yu Darvish but it’s more of a “stop-gap” than anything and there really aren’t many better options down at El Paso at present.  The Padres needed all three of their top relievers to close out the win yesterday and there’s been a considerable drop off in the Padres bullpen this season behind the high leverage guys.  Manny Machado has been confirmed out again today so short-handed Padres with AAA starter on the mound makes the Rockies an intriguing option here.  

I also think there might be some extra +1.5 value based on the fact the scoring is WAY down at Coors Field this season.  One could make the parallel that offense is down across the board in Major League Baseball but the launching pad that is Coors Field has seen an average of just 8.75 runs per game after being over 11 the past two seasons.  This is significant because there typically isn’t a ton of vig on Rockies +1.5 because of that (also because the Rockies are usually bad) and I think that’s why we are able to get such a cheap price on the RL against a AAA starting pitcher here.  Another reason Rockies +1.5 is so cheap is Dakota Hudson doesn’t get much respect but he’s a veteran and usually good to not get completely buried over 5-6 innings.  Ty Blach and Anthony Molina stepped up to save the Rockies bullpen yesterday which means all of Colorado’s overworked, high leverage arms got the day off.  If Hudson is respectable the Rockies can follow him up with Jake Bird and Justin Lawrence and I think that gives the Rockies a solid chance to steal another win here. 

I do like this Padres team long term but it’s worth pointing out that right now they are playing roughly .500 ball and will be without one of their top players today.  That, plus a AAA pitcher, can’t be laying -1.5 at this price on the road so I have to step in and ask the Rockies to be competitive in the finale of a series that has been competitive throughout thus far.  Play on Rockies +1.5 (-118) for 4% (or 4 units)